Mental models on:

decision making

The Hot Hand Fallacy

You've got to be careful not to fall into the traps of the mind - Michael Jordan

A/B Testing

We must learn what customers really want, not what they say they want or what we think they should want - Eric Ries

Inversion in Decision-Making

Invert, always invert: Turn a situation or problem upside down. Look at it backward. What happens if all our plans go wrong? Where don’t we want to go, and how do you get there? Instead of looking for success, make a list of how to fail instead - Charlie Munger

Probability Theory in Risk Mitigation

The essence of risk management lies in maximizing the areas where we have some control over the outcome while minimizing the areas where we have absolutely no control over the outcome and the linkage between effect and cause is hidden from us - Peter L. Bernstein

Game Theory in Sports

Every action is a tactical decision made in the shadow of uncertainty - John McDermott

The Gallery Curator Mental Model

Art is not what you see, but what you make others see - Edgar Degas

Role-Playing Known Experts

It's life's change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new - Steve Jobs

The Ostrich Effect

Face reality as it is, not as it was or as you wish it to be - Jack Welch

The 10-10-10 Rule

When we make decisions about life, we're not just making decisions about where we'll be tomorrow, or the next week, or the next year, but where we'll be in 10 or even 20 years - James Clear

Utilitarianism in Ethical Decision-Making

The greatest happiness of the greatest number is the foundation of morals and legislation - Jeremy Bentham

The Information Cascade

People are more likely to accept information as being true if others also believe it. This phenomenon is known as an information cascade - Michael Crichton

Scarcity Principle

Without scarcity, there would be no economics - Paul Samuelson

The Pyrrhic Victory: The Cost of Winning at All Costs

Losing a battle can be more profitable than winning - Sun Tzu

The Availability Heuristic Mental Model

The availability of the input to our senses and the availability of the conclusion to our memory are usually correlated - Daniel Kahneman

The Halo Effect

"We see people not as they are, but as we are." - Anais Nin

The Paradox of Choice

Learning to choose is hard. Learning to choose well is harder. And learning to choose well in a world of unlimited possibilities is harder still, perhaps too hard.

The OODA Loop

The key is to obscure your intentions and make them unpredictable to your opponent while you simultaneously clarify his intentions. That is, operate at a faster tempo to generate rapidly changing conditions that inhibit your opponent from adapting or reacting to those changes and that suppress or destroy his awareness. Thus, a hodgepodge of confusion and disorder occur to cause him to over- or under-react to conditions or activities that appear to be uncertain, ambiguous, or incomprehensible. - John Boyd

The Mindfulness Mental Model

Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind on the present moment. - Buddha

The 5 Whys

Asking 'Why?' may be a favorite technique of your three year old child in driving you crazy, but it could teach you a valuable Six Sigma quality lesson. - Peter T. Pande and Larry Holpp

Second-Order Thinking: Anticipating Unintended Consequences

When we don't consider second and subsequent order consequences, we get surprised. - Ray Dalio

Law of Diminishing Returns: Optimizing Efforts

We reach a point, in other words, where the law of diminishing returns kicks in, and more becomes too much.

Occam's Razor: Seeking Simplicity in Problem-Solving

Entities should not be multiplied without necessity. -William of Ockham

Overcoming Selective Perception

The eye sees only what the mind is prepared to comprehend. - Robertson Davies

Opportunity Cost: Evaluating Trade-Offs

The cost of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it - Henry David Thoreau

Anchoring Effect

We have an irrational bias toward the first information we hear, see, or experience. This first piece of information is the anchor for everything that follows. - Charlie Munger

Decision Trees: Mapping Out Complex Choices

Decision is the ultimate power. The clearer your parameters of decision-making are, the more you're actually going to have a life that matters. - Tony Robbins

Prospect Theory

People react to losses and potential gains differently. Loss aversion could lead to riskier decisions, as individuals are willing to take more risks to avoid certain losses.

Confirmation Bias

We are more often frightened than hurt; and we suffer more from imagination than from reality. - Seneca

Eisenhower Matrix

"What is important is seldom urgent and what is urgent is seldom important. - Dwight Eisenhower"

Inversion

"Look at the world through a different lens. Invert your perspective, and you'll find the solutions that others overlook."